asd
Thursday, July 18, 2024
HomeBaseballBen Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/27/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 11/27/23


2:00
Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, let’s get chatting. I’m gonna attempt to go quick and livid at this time, an hour of densely packed questions, so let’s get began immediately
2:00
CocoPuffs: I do know most writers aren’t a fan of 1 staff, at the least after just a few years of writing. As a lifelong Oakland A’s fan who’s having his coronary heart ripped out, any tips about being a fan with out a staff? Baseball has been such an enormous a part of my life however I’m near dropping all of it collectively, it’s heartbreaking
2:01
Ben Clemens: I’ve actually toned down my Playing cards fandom, however I nonetheless do root for them to do properly, and a variety of my colleagues really feel equally
2:01
Ben Clemens: That stated, I feel that life with out a sturdy rooting curiosity will be enjoyable so long as you’re actually into how superb all these gamers are
2:01
Ben Clemens: I really like watching good protection and bizarre stuff
2:01
Ben Clemens: But when that’s not for you, you possibly can’t make or not it’s. It’s actually robust! What the A’s did sucks
2:02
Sabey Sabes: Thought the Cubs can be in on a Maeda sort, particularly at that worth, to backfill the rotation. Flawed thought or are they tunnel-visioned on the highest prizes proper now?
2:02
Ben Clemens: I feel that there will likely be sufficient Maeda-type selections that they aren’t in large hassle in the event that they miss on all the highest of rotation sorts
2:02
Ben Clemens: Like sure, a Maeda sort makes a variety of sense for them. However there are sufficient different variations that they’ll be effective
2:02
Dk: Probabilities Mets signal Yamomoto, Imanga and Miley?
2:03
Ben Clemens: Let’s say 3%. That’s lots of people going to 1 particular staff
2:03
TomBruno23: 2024 St. Louis Cardinals: A Rotation for the Aged. When is the final time the membership threw out a projected beginning 5 with a median age of 35?
2:03
Frogs: What staff goes to fumble the offseason the toughest? Is it already the Cardinals?
2:03
Ben Clemens: Look, if that is the Cardinals’ complete plan, I’ll be aggravated
2:03
Ben Clemens: This isn’t precisely a fearsome rotation
2:04
Ben Clemens: I do assume Sonny Grey is an ideal match for them, although
2:04
Ben Clemens: good proper now, timeline kinda traces up with the Arenado/Goldschmidt facet of issues, they’re clearly serious about guys who throw sinkers, even when they’re typically shifting in direction of valuing whiffs extra
2:04
Ben Clemens: I’m actually unenthused in regards to the Lynn and Gibson signings, Lynn significantly
2:04
Ben Clemens: If they’re going for another starter through commerce, nice! In the event that they’re not, what the heck
2:05
Mike: Looks like the Playing cards may transfer Matz now to open up extra wage for an additional high of the rotation arm? Can’t think about you get a lot for Matz however 2/22 for him isn’t that unhealthy a contract all issues thought of
2:05
Ben Clemens: I imply, I don’t see them signing a high free agent from right here
2:05
Ben Clemens: It’s simply not how they function
2:05
Ben Clemens: I feel they need to! I don’t assume they are going to
2:05
TW: Any ideas on the Tigers’ strikes for Canha and Maeda?
2:05
Ben Clemens: I feel they each make a ton of sense
2:05
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume they need to be executed
2:05
Ben Clemens: They’ve a variety of unproven rotation choices. Somebody goes to get damage. Somebody goes to wrestle. Possibly these ought to every say ‘some ones’ in truth
2:06
Ben Clemens: Getting good, solidly common gamers to fill holes that had been in any other case getting stuffed with duct tape and Triple-A lifers is what good groups do
2:06
Ben Clemens: I’m not 100% certain the Tigers have the core to the place these patches will make the entire thing work
2:06
Ben Clemens: However I do like that they’re making an attempt. Possibly they’ve one large signing in thoughts that may actually anchor the rotation
2:06
Ben Clemens: Welcome again, my good friend
2:07
The Batman: Let’s be the utmost model of beneficiant. How does the Eugenio Suarez commerce assist the 2024 Seattle Mariners?
2:07
Ben Clemens: I can not offer you that pitch
2:07
Ben Clemens: I feel the argument is that this: if the Urias commerce solely occurs in the event that they’re shifting Suarez, you possibly can persuade your self that they socked away 5 million bucks that can be utilized sooner or later
2:08
Ben Clemens: plus saved just a few million extra on a backup catcher that may be recycled, mixed, into both a fifth starter or a left fielder
2:08
Ben Clemens: however no, they need to have traded for Urias AND stored Suarez, c’mon
2:09
Mr. Fister: With all of the talks about shoulder accidents being even worse than elbow accidents for pitchers, ought to I simply cease overthinking whether or not or to not hold Woodruff @ $17 in my dynasty league?  Stashing throughout a misplaced ’24 to have @ $20 in ’25 is dumb, proper?  I imply, we will’t count on him after lacking an entire yr, to be high 10 once more, proper?
2:09
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume we will count on it, but it surely’s not out of the realm of chance
2:09
Ben Clemens: I feel he’s a lower despite the fact that the worth is there
2:09
Ben Clemens: if he clicks once more
2:09
Mr. Fister: Similar query, however as an alternative of Woodruff, we’re speaking Kyle Wright @ $7, to overlook all of ’24 and be $10 in ’25.  Lower?
2:09
Ben Clemens: Simpler lower for me
2:09
Ben Clemens: The upside is much less
2:09
Princess Leia: Assist us Obi-Wan Clemonobi! You’re our solely hope!

The Evil Empire of the offseason is constructing a brand new deathstar. Our scouts have stolen the plans for this behemoth and it entails a number of Twitter rumors and little or no scorching range motion. Solely it can save you us!

2:09
Ben Clemens: Oh man, should you’re relying on me, issues have gone flawed someplace
2:09
Double Hucklebuck: Ohtani…..do you’ve got the Dodgers, or the sphere?
2:10
Appa Yip Yip: Are you able to dial up some GMs and inform them to transact pls?
2:10
Ben Clemens: actually I’m fairly pleased with the tempo to date
2:10
Ben Clemens: I’m taking a reverse staycation this week, i.e. touring to a distant location within the woods however working usually
2:10
Ben Clemens: so it’s a good time for chill writing
2:10
Ben Clemens: possibly just a few minor strikes, nothing too loopy, save the enjoyable for winter conferences subsequent week
2:10
Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Hello Ben – I hope you had a pleasant Thanksgiving.  Do you’ve got any new board sport recommendations that might work for a household with youngsters as younger as 6 and eight?  I’m making an attempt to get one thing for the vacations.  Thanks.
2:11
Ben Clemens: We performed Six Nimmt with my sister in legislation and her associate on vaca, I feel it’s a extremely good sport,a nd positively for all ages
2:11
Ben Clemens: extra of a card sport than a board sport, and really low barrier to entry/complexity
2:11
Ben Clemens: however actually enjoyable, very replayable
2:11
Brad: The NFL and, particularly, the NBA have a variety of free agent offers occur in the course of the first hours of free company.  Do you see MLB attending to that time and, if that’s the case, when/how?  Is it desired by MLB in any respect…or do they just like the leisurely paced strategy to the new range?
2:12
Ben Clemens: Properly, the NBA factor is kinda pretend
2:12
Ben Clemens: They’ve an extended transaction moratorium, throughout which everybody unofficially agrees to the offers
2:12
Ben Clemens: In order that they compress a month of precise negotiation right into a single day of bulletins
2:12
Ben Clemens: I feel baseball ought to completely try this
2:12
Ben Clemens: have a transaction freeze from the WS till the winter conferences
2:13
Ben Clemens: a random group of weekdays in December, when there’s no NFL intervening and nobody cares about hockey or basketball b/c it’s the common season, can be a great time for a concentrated dose of baseball information
2:15
Dave Kerwin: Do you anticipate the NL Central being extra aggressive this season? Looks like all 5 groups are poised to be higher than final yr. Any wild guess on the division standings?
2:15
Ben Clemens: I feel the Brewers are positively going to be worse than final yr
2:15
Ben Clemens: No Woodruff, in all probability no Burnes
2:15
Ben Clemens: however uh, principally no? I feel the NL Central will nonetheless be not very aggressive and that the groups will attempt to skate by with that data in tow
2:16
Ben Clemens: I don’t prefer it, however I do assume it
2:16
TomBruno23: Mozeliak can now enter SP Commerce talks from a place of energy. I feel. Proper?
2:16
Ben Clemens: I feel that’s kinda overrated. There are sufficient groups who want pitching that it’s not like groups will now say “okay effective you signed Lance Lynn, you possibly can have Glasnow for affordable”
2:16
Ben Clemens: they’ll simply commerce him to another person who wants pitching as an alternative
2:16
Growth: I’m a hardcore Phillies fan, however what’s occurring to Oakland is tearing me aside. Vegas ought to have gotten an enlargement staff as an alternative of a relocated one. Guess my query is, the place would you set one other staff if not Vegas or Oakland if given the selection?
2:17
Ben Clemens: as Michael Baumann’s award-winning article in regards to the league being too small identified, the south and significantly the southeast is underserved when it comes to groups per capita
2:17
Ben Clemens: Tennessee has some good baseball, Nashville is booming, I don’t actually assume we want one other Florida staff; Nashville or maybe someplace in North Carolina looks as if the apparent resolution
2:17
Double Hucklebuck: Cardinals going with “Age in a Cage” this low season.  Is that this extra for saving cash, or in preparation for Therefore, Liberatore, and different pitching prospects cracking the rotation quickly?
2:17
Ben Clemens: porque no los dos?
2:18
Joe Boo: Any likelihood the Angels transfer Trout, and if that’s the case who do you assume may pull it off?
2:18
Ben Clemens: I feel there’s an opportunity however I’ve it properly underneath 50%
2:18
Ben Clemens: The plain match is the Dodgers
2:18
Ben Clemens: Simply from an accessible cash standpoint
2:19
TomBruno23: I do form of dig what the Cardinals have executed to date in consolidating innings throughout a comparatively low quantity of rosters spots and solely spending cash as far as against value managed expertise.
2:19
ryan: How a lot would public response be in to the three Cardinals pitcher provides be within the alternate dimensions the place they signed in reverse order?
2:19
Ben Clemens: I feel that issues would principally really feel the identical
2:19
Ben Clemens: I feel that Gibson and Grey are good signings, Grey extra so
2:19
Ben Clemens: I don’t get hte Lynn signing
2:19
Ben Clemens: and yeah, I’m joyful they’re solely spending cash — however they should spend MORE cash
2:19
Ben Clemens: this rotation isn’t adequate
2:19
Ben Clemens: no flip-flopping of order can ch ange that
2:19
bringbackpologrounds: Do you see Altuve and Bregman getting extensions from the Astros? Does the juggernaut survive if one in all them is traded?
2:19
Ben Clemens: I feel one however not each will
2:20
Ben Clemens: and no, I’m predicting that in 5 years the Astros really feel like simply one other staff
2:20
Ben Clemens: they’re nonetheless doing a great job maximizing the core put collectively in earlier years, however the advantages are slowing down considerably, and the dev/acquisition pipeline will not be what it as soon as was
2:20
Scotty H: Is Detroit going to be the attractive decide for staff that didn’t make the playoffs in 2023 however will for 2024?
2:20
Ben Clemens: I feel the Cubs will likely be
2:20
Ben Clemens: however Detroit for the AL, positively
2:20
mac: the yankees are screwed, proper? there’s no path out of their mess with out fixing their atrocious hitting growth document, and so they don’t even appear to understand there’s an issue
2:21
Ben Clemens: I imply…. I don’t actually assume so?
2:21
Ben Clemens: I feel they’ll be effective
2:21
Ben Clemens: however I perceive that it’s simpler to say that from the skin wanting in
2:21
Double Hucklebuck: Do the Guardians hand Manzardo the 1B job after his good AFL displaying, or do they nonetheless begin him in Colombus?
2:21
Ben Clemens: I feel he’ll in all probability want a month or so to work on his protection
2:21
Ben Clemens: except he’s a probable ROY winner, I haven’t thought of that sufficient but
2:21
Grandpaboy: For those who’re the Cubs, would you fairly spend your $500m of Free Agent $$$ on Ohtani or some combo of Yamamoto ($210-ish), Bellinger/Chapman ($150-ish every), Imanaga ($100?) and Candelario ($60-70)? Spreading it round is a safer play, however none of these different guys will promote tickets (and Marquee subscriptions) like Shohei.
2:21
Ben Clemens: Ooh, good query right here
2:23
Ben Clemens: I’d desire Ohtani if I knew I used to be going to get him
2:23
Ben Clemens: However given the truth that it’s not a certain factor, I like spreading issues out
2:23
Ben Clemens: It’s only a extra strong plan, and I actually do assume that the Cubs are set as much as compete now
2:23
Ben Clemens: so it could be a extremely unhealthy end result for them to not find yourself deploying any payroll in free company
2:24
Ben Clemens: Getting fixated on Ohtani, not signing him, and having everybody else signal whereas he’s deciding is simply the worst doable factor that might occur to them
2:24
jg007: I determine the Pirates in all probability have about 30 mil to spend on free brokers to get payroll from their present $53ish million payroll to 83ish and so they at the moment have one (1) usable SP on their 40 man roster.  Who’re some beginning pitchers that you possibly can see being imperfect sufficient to be of their worth vary to afford two (underneath 15 mil every?) and also you additionally like sufficient to be value signing?   My fast hits are Paxton, Montas, Severino.
2:24
Ben Clemens: I feel you’ve got the precise proper thought right here
2:24
Ben Clemens: proficient however questionably wholesome guys
2:25
Ben Clemens: possibly add Sean Manaea, who doesn’t fairly match that mould however who I do like
2:25
Rodolfo Castros Cellphone: KeBryan Hayes lastly for actual?
2:25
Ben Clemens: I imply, I don’t know however heck yeah
2:25
Ben Clemens: as , I chair the fan membership
2:26
ryan: So the A’s are in a bizarre spot within the nice past between the tip of their lease and the development of the brand new LV stadium. % of dwelling video games in a) the AAA park in LV, b) Oracle Park, c) one way or the other nonetheless in Oakland, d) someplace in LatAm a la the Expos, e) different?
2:26
Ben Clemens: going to be hilarious
2:26
Ben Clemens: however hilarious
2:26
Jax: Will Bauer pitch in MLB in 2024?
2:26
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume so
2:26
Appa Yip Yip: Pls assist me sq. this circle: defensive highlights are higher than offensive highlights as a result of they’re visually extra spectacular and contextless homeruns all look the identical, however groups constructed on pitching and protection are much less enjoyable to look at than groups just like the Phillies that simply hit dingers.
2:26
Ben Clemens: Oh, I feel I can do that
2:26
Ben Clemens: Okay, so the very best defensive groups don’t, I feel, have a ton extra defensive highlights
2:27
Ben Clemens: as a result of their vary makes issues look simple, and significantly within the infield, surehandedness actually does assist
2:27
Ben Clemens: so the vary of defensive highlights per staff is narrower than teh vary of defensive talent
2:27
Ben Clemens: additionally excessive scoring video games are enjoyable, even when the person occasions aren’t enjoyable
2:27
Ben Clemens: 5-3 within the third feels just like the rating isn’t ending that method
2:28
Ben Clemens: 2-0 doesn’t essentially encourage the identical confidence
2:28
Appa Yip Yip: How a lot is the tv income scenario going to influence the offseason? Looks like groups with safe financials can scoop up a variety of expertise by taking up contracts.
2:28
Ben Clemens: I’ve been fascinated with this query quite a bit just lately
2:28
Ben Clemens: I’m in all probability gonna write about it
2:28
Ben Clemens: it’s positively the elephant within the room
2:29
RH: The place do you assume the A’s play of their interregnum? May Monterrey be an possibility?
2:29
Ben Clemens: for a second I used to be pondering Monterey, like the place the aquarium was
2:29
Ben Clemens: and I don’t assume they’ve a stadium with capability over, say, 5,000
2:29
Ben Clemens: so it’d be good! (I child)
2:29
Ben Clemens: however uh, no, I don’t assume taking part in a full season in Mexico is within the cadrds
2:29
Ben Clemens: maybe they’ll have a stint there, the entire scenario is actually messy
2:30
TomBruno23: The Cardinals, regardless of what the say publicly, at all times assemble their roster primarily based on their division opponents. On condition that I feel what they’ve executed with the SP is greater than sufficient to contemplate themselves a contender within the NL Central. Not saying that could be a excessive bar to clear.
2:30
Ben Clemens: Fully agree with this. The Cardinals simply attempt to beat the second-best NLC staff
2:30
Ben Clemens: and the NLC makes it simple for them to try this with out spending an excessive amount of
2:30
Ben Clemens: when the Cubs went large in 2016-2018, whoops, the Playing cards didn’t make the playoffs for just a few years
2:30
Can’t see the traces, huh Russ?: Has there been an even bigger piece of idiot’s gold in the marketplace lately than Cody Bellinger?  I can’t imagine some staff goes to offer him 10 years and near $200 million.
2:31
Ben Clemens: I imply, I feel that a variety of the rationale groups will signal him is as a result of the protection doesn’t hunch, however yeah, I’d be verrrrrry scared to offer him a giant contract if I had been a GM
2:31
Ben Clemens: I’d simply hope to not be able of needing a hitter this offseason. It’s a dire crop
2:31
Properly-Beered Englishman: Defensive highlights are far more enjoyable to look at the subsequent day outdoors the context of the sport. The subsequent day, all homers seem like homers. However within the sport, if you don’t know the result, a homer is at all times thrilling.
2:31
Ben Clemens: One other good level
2:32
CrazyInNYC: This can be a really foolish query, however: Fernando Tatis for Logan Gilbert. Who says no? Possibly the M’s throw in Canzone and the Padres throw in a minor league lottery ticket who may flip into the subsequent Munoz or Brash.
2:32
Ben Clemens: I imply the Mariners say no by a mile
2:32
Ben Clemens: they’ll’t afford to pay for valet parking
2:32
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume they’re taking up Tatis’s contract
2:32
Ben Clemens: I feel the Padres would in all probability additionally say no as a result of Tatis is a part of the way forward for the franchise and sells tickets, however I’m much less certain about that, and I additionally assume it’s pointless
2:32
Ben Clemens: b/c the Mariners are simply not including wage
2:33
Rainbow Sprinkles: What number of mixed PAs do you see for Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch this season? And… for what staff(s)?
2:33
Ben Clemens: 1000, and actually each for the Dodgers
2:33
AL West enjoyer: The Mariners desperately want bats, and appear unwilling to spend large. Enter… Rhys Hoskins? 1B/DH improve in all probability accessible at a post-injury low cost? Am I loopy for pondering that’s a terrific match as a result of I haven’t seen anyone linking them collectively all winter
2:33
Ben Clemens: Is smart to me, however uh, I dunno in the event that they wish to pay cash
2:33
Ben Clemens: it’s not very enjoyable to say but it surely’s true
2:33
Ben Clemens: they could simply roll with what they’ve
2:34
Ben Clemens: there certain are a variety of righty energy bats accessible, although, so possibly they simply pull a Brewers and wait to see who has the least curiosity, then attempt to signal that man for affordable
2:34
harry: sorry for an additional cardinals query — which outfielder is almost certainly to maneuver this offseason? what does the beginning outfield seem like subsequent yr?
2:34
Ben Clemens: i feel Carlson, b/c it looks as if the Cardinals are intent on getting an actual return for TON and nobody goes to supply them that
2:34
I Don’t Know, Margot!: Who’s your guess for staff almost certainly to go all Mets, spend a ton of cash within the low season, and nonetheless not be related of their division, and why is it the Giants?
2:35
Ben Clemens: It’s in all probability the Giants, sadly
2:35
Ben Clemens: I wish to see Ohtani dwelling video games subsequent yr SO badly
2:35
Ben Clemens: But when that doesn’t work out I can utterly see them simply getting Bellinger and operating again an outdated staff that wasn’t nice final yr
2:35
Insert Witty Identify Right here: How unhealthy will the Phillies core of aged stars in 2030 be?
2:35
Ben Clemens: Okay, I used to be going to offer this a sarcastic reply however let’s do that for actual
2:36
Ben Clemens: Turner, Harper, and Nola are the blokes signed past 2026
2:36
Ben Clemens: so Harper, eh, LHH 1b/dh, in all probability nonetheless gonna be mashing
2:36
Ben Clemens: he has outdated man expertise
2:37
Ben Clemens: gained’t be pretty much as good as he’s now, clearly, and he’s signed till even longer than that, however I don’t see him being unplayable. Error bars are large that far out, in fact
2:37
Ben Clemens: Nola? Yeah, I don’t assume he’ll be superb. He’ll be a fifth starter or not within the rotation almost certainly
2:37
Ben Clemens: Turner, in all probability not unimaginable by then both
2:38
Ben Clemens: However groups have guys like that on wage now and again and it’s effective
2:38
Ben Clemens: these are the one three signed past 2026, so they might have extra large contracts by then, however I hardly see this as some unfixable burden
2:38
ryan: Do you discover the Tatis taking part in SS in LIDOM factor as humorous as I do? Like, do you assume the Padres need him to sometimes get reps there to maintain the muscle reminiscence, or is that this some form of act of civil disobedience?
2:38
Ben Clemens: I would like it to be civil disobedience for certain
2:38
Ben Clemens: I positively discover it very humorous
2:39
KBO: What are your ideas on Jung Hoo Lee?
2:39
Ben Clemens: Wrote about it somewhat within the high 50 free agent piece, which you’ll find right here:
2:39
Ben Clemens: I’m much less certain than Eric that he’s going to be a plus middle fielder, however there’s an honest likelihood of it
2:40
Ben Clemens: groups are positively going to be serious about discovering out
2:40
Farhandrew Zaidman: Hey Ben! Resigning J-Hey just about ensures Mookie is taking part in 2B versus righties once more, proper?
2:40
Ben Clemens: I imagine so, sure
2:41
Properly-Beered Englishman: Will anybody high Maeda within the division of “Contracts That Make Followers of the Different 29 Groups Marvel Why Their Group Didn’t Signal That Man”?
2:41
Ben Clemens: Virtually for certain, sure
2:41
Ben Clemens: I can’t inform you who
2:41
Ben Clemens: however virtually for certain, there are a LOT of free brokers
2:41
Sean: Is it doable the M’s cash factor is only a smokescreen and so they come out of all this with Ohtani?  It looks as if simply final yr they put ahead a ton of cash into Castillo and Julio?
2:42
Ben Clemens: Doable? Positive
2:42
Ben Clemens: Possible? Positively not
2:42
Ben Clemens: it’s not like this ploy began final week
2:42
Ben Clemens: It’s been a long-term frustration, and irritating sufficient taht staff leaders like Cal Raleigh are speaking about it
2:42
Travis: How come baseball gamers don’t maintain out? I really feel like if this was the NFL or NBA, Acuna would’ve simply held out for more cash by now. Rather more cash. And if he didn’t get it, demanded a commerce
2:42
Ben Clemens: I actually don’t know, to be trustworthy
2:43
Visitor: Occupied with lifelike Orioles’ offseason strikes, would one thing like E-Rod for 4/100 (first off lifelike contract?), be sufficient for strong competition, or would an addition transfer like Cowser/Ortiz for Stop should be executed as properly? (envisioning one thing like Bradish/Stop/Erod/GrayRod/Means/Kremer
2:43
Ben Clemens: I feel that E Rod deal is affordable if he’s serious about taking part in in Baltimore, and I feel he’s, he appears to primarily wish to keep away from the west coast
2:43
Ben Clemens: I do assume it’d be sufficient for strong competition. They gained the East this yr and I feel they do a terrific job of constructing redundancy that makes them play up over an extended season, no embarrassingly unhealthy plate apperances or batters facded
2:43
Ben Clemens: or at the least, fewer
2:44
Ben Clemens: I’m only a lot decrease on Stop than I feel others are, and it sounds just like the White Sox need loads for him
2:44
Ben Clemens: that stated I additionally assume the O’s must be making an attempt to consolidate expertise into the 26-man roster proper now
2:44
Ben Clemens: I’d desire Burnes, although, principally
2:44
Gimme an Ace: Pessimistic on O’s strikes, would a single addition like Stroman push the needle in any respect for the Orioles? Bradish/Stroman/Grey-Rod/Means/Kremer
2:45
Ben Clemens: Similar deal, I feel that’d be good for htem, and possibly they then attempt to add a starter on the deadline if GrayRod isn’t pitching like an ace?
2:45
D: Given all of the predictions of Ohtani getting someplace round $500 mil, what’s the consensus on what he’d get if wholesome?
2:45
Ben Clemens: Extra, or the identical over much less years? I struggled mightily to provide you with an Ohtani contract estimate as a result of it’s previous ‘no comps’ and into ‘nobody has been like this’
2:45
Marlins man 2: Doesn’t Stop and Robert make a variety of sense for us? Sandy gone for yr and shedding Soler. Additionally, have a variety of pitching prospects.
2:46
Ben Clemens: Positive, I suppose? I don’t assume the Marlins have sufficient juice to commerce for each, although
2:47
Ben Clemens: Robert simply put up a 5 win season and simply turned 26, plus he’s underneath staff management by 2027
2:47
TomBruno23: Nonetheless on pins and needles awaiting phrase on the Paul DeJong contract particulars…MLB Deal for a man who was DFA’d twice down the stretch in 2023?
2:47
Ben Clemens: I’m very stunned too
2:47
Bresbian: For a staff with as many clear wants and as a lot cash because the Crimson Sox, their hearsay mill is surprisingly quiet. What’s your  greatest guess on how they allocate assets?
2:47
Ben Clemens: I feel they’re determining if Ohtani is , after which going to go laborious at some pitchers if not
2:48
Ben Clemens: I feel they’ll afford to take an extended view and never attempt to repair the entire staff this winter, go pitching this yr and hitting subsequent
2:48
KC Ache: Behind the scenes does ERod’s nixing of the commerce then saying he’ll play wherever make a distinction to a entrance workplace? Tigers appeared to have supported him w his fam points.  I figured he would keep put, however then opting AND being open after the season.
2:48
Ben Clemens: I feel west coast groups will likely be somewhat skeptical
2:49
Ben Clemens: actually, although, what else is he alleged to say?
2:49
Ben Clemens: don’t restrict your personal market, ?
2:49
Depressed M’s Fan: It’s unhappy to look at the staff who manufactured a aggressive window by placing up $300 million for Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz act like broke losers once they have their greatest younger core in 20 years
2:49
Ben Clemens: I have no idea many Mariners followers who’re joyful about it
2:50
Smiling Politely: NFL gamers maintain out for assured cash (it’s insane to me that the one sport that truly can kill you has nonguaranteed contracts on the common); the NBAPA has a greater union and the benefit of 1 star participant having the ability to make or break a whole staff’s decade.
2:50
Ben Clemens: Yeah the NFL facet makes complete sense to me
2:50
Ben Clemens: and I feel I should buy the NBA facet? There are additionally fewer true holdouts tehre
2:50
Ben Clemens: it’s extra commerce me or I’ll be grumpy
2:51
Visitor: When do you assume we begin listening to about enlargement? The Tampa stadium scenario (Seemingly) seems to be agreed too, and the A’s scenario appears to be progressing (although who is aware of). Would MLB wait till the brand new stadiums have been accomplished or would a groundbreaking be sufficient to begin the method?
2:51
Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, I feel a groundbreaking will likely be sufficient
2:51
Ben Clemens: And I additionally assume that relying on how Bally stuff goes this offseason, the league is likely to be available in the market for a money infusion sooner fairly than later
2:51
Ken Blemens: Odds that the Phillies get both Yamamoto or Imanaga? Within the occasion that they add one other beginning pitcher, how a lot will they should pay a staff to take Taijuan Walker? Looks like he may have some worth to a staff low on pitching depth.
2:52
Ben Clemens: I feel Yamamoto is unlikely, Imanaga makes extra sense
2:52
Ben Clemens: I feel they’d in all probability dislike what they might get for Walker a lot that they’ll simply hold him as depth
2:52
Ben Clemens: like, the Phillies are a staff low on pitching depth, as a result of each staff is
2:52
mac: the yankees’ hitting dev query is as a result of all of their hitting prospects have been busts for half a decade. volpe, peraza, cabrera, pereira, florial, even going again to frazier have all failed miserably at MLB degree regardless of modest to main hype and minor league success. at what level is that not unhealthy luck and as an alternative indicative of a horrible system?
2:52
Ben Clemens: an extended timeframe than this, imo
2:53
Cooooors Lightyeat: Is Trevor Story cooked
2:53
Ben Clemens: We’re gonna discover out in 2024
2:53
Ben Clemens: I feel he will get a go for ’23 as a result of principally taking part in his method again to main league readiness in season is hard
2:54
Ben Clemens: he solely had 48 minor league pa of rehab assignments after lacking a full yr
2:54
Ben Clemens: you clearly should revise your estimates down, although, and mine had been already low, so I’ll say sure, however with the acknowledgement that it’s actually not a settled query
2:55
Farhandrew Zaidman: Following up on Vargas/Busch – the place are the 1000 ABs coming from? Every part besides LF is blocked, and there’s a giant time DH down the 5 freeway that’s being focused…
2:55
Ben Clemens: I nonetheless assume it’s extra doubtless than not that Ohtani indicators elsewhere
2:55
Ben Clemens: however accidents, LF, 2b when Mookie performs the outfield, DH, 3b if/when Muncy misses time, that kinda factor
2:56
Ben Clemens: I’d revise that estimate down in the event that they landed Ohtani
2:56
Econ Scholar: Hey Ben! I’m at the moment writing a analysis paper on the determinants of a participant’s wage utilizing coefficients akin to participant’s age, battle, and so forth. Would you have the option level me within the path of an article right here that could be benefitial?
2:56
Ben Clemens: there’s this:
2:56
Ben Clemens: and right here’s an older model that makes use of some good methodology that I feel I lifted partially for mine
2:56
Mitchell: Jay Jaffe’s current piece on Lou Piniella’s HOF case jogged my memory that when Lou needed to go dwelling to shut his profession the Mariners obtained Randy Winn from TB as compensation, who proved an actual steal. What number of GMs do you suppose would commerce their supervisor at this time for 2-3 years of a 3-4 WAR participant? Conversely, what number of groups would commerce 2-3 years of a 3-4 participant for a supervisor at this time?
2:57
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume any groups would commerce Randy Winn for a supervisor at this time
2:57
KC Ache: Why do groups kick tires on guys like Dejong and never Hiura AAA sort and hope for a JD, Duvall, and so forth. sort breakout? (diff positions throughout I do know) Feels bizarre w Jon Singleton getting possibilities at 30+ and Hiura is 25-26(?).
2:58
Ben Clemens: Groups love these sorts of offers, I feel that he’ll find yourself someplace
2:58
Ben Clemens: I imply the DeJong factor is simply weird
2:58
Ben Clemens: I feel it’s honest to imagine he’s cooked
2:59
Ben Clemens: I feel Hiura is probably going cooked, too, and he can’t actually deal with the center infield, however why not discover out?
2:59
EL: Do you assume Kim Ng goes to take a yr off and see if there’s any GM vacancies subsequent offseason, or is she more likely to slot right into a staff’s current entrance workplace construction?
2:59
Ben Clemens: yeah I feel she’ll doubtless take a yr off
2:59
Ben Clemens: if you’ve been GM, it’s in all probability very troublesome to take what quantities to a demotion
3:00
KC Ache: Do you assume Seager’s contract will likely be like Scherzer’s in Washington?  OMG SO MUCH $$$ then the man lives as much as it?
3:00
Ben Clemens: Trending that method for certain!
3:01
Ben Clemens: I feel from the Ragners’ perspective, he’s already lived as much as it
3:01
Ben Clemens: on that be aware, I’m gonna name it a day
3:01
Ben Clemens: thanks for all the good questions, everybody
3:01
Ben Clemens: Odds are low that I’m gonna be chatting subsequent week, as a result of I’ll be on the winter conferences, however I’m going to begin getting again to a extra common schedule now that I’m not consistently touring to weddings or protecting playoff video games
3:01
Ben Clemens: have an exquisite week

 

Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He will be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.

RELATED ARTICLES

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

Most Popular

Recent Comments